A week before election day in Canada, it appears none of the major national parties will get what they want.
The Conservatives won't get a majority in the House; the Liberals won't even come close to getting back the reins of government; New Democrats won't take over Official Opposition status.
At least, that's how it appears.
Websites that track poll results peg Conservative support as stopping short of enough for a majority. Last week, projections were a bit shy of 150 seats for Team Harper. (They need at least 155 for a majority.) The numbers have since dropped, perhaps because many people don't want the Cons in charge during a recession.
Meanwhile, the Liberal ship is listing but the NDP has been unable to catch up to the former natural governing party.
The Greens might (May?) win a seat or two, but it's at least as likely that large numbers of people parking their vote at Green right now will move to orange and red by the 14th and Green election hopes in Nunavat and Saanich will evaporate. In Central Nova, expect the Green leader to be stymied by NDP die-hards who refuse to switch their vote.
The Bloc Quebecois appears headed toward winning most of Quebec's seats again, depriving the Cons of much-needed seats for a majority in the process.
In my home riding, it appears the Liberal incumbent will lose to a Conservative. Liberal prospects aren't much brighter on the rest of the Prairies, where they may hold on to just two seats (Wascana and Winnipeg-South Centre).
My humble prediction: Harper Conservatives will come out of this unnecessary election with 135-140 seats. More than two-thirds will be in B.C., Alberta and Ontario, but the Cons will still have seats in all provinces except tiny, Liberal-hugging P.E.I.
The Libs will be battling the BQ (not the NDP) for Official Opposition and keep it thanks mainly to urban Ontario.
It would be a huge surprise if the NDP wins fewer than 34 seats. I think they'll win about 40, maybe 45.
Of course, in any of these predictions I could be wrong. I've been wrong before.
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1 comment:
Good predictions - they're in the range of what I'm thinking, as well: 140-145 Con, ~75 Lib, ~45 Bloc, ~40 NDP, 2 Independents. I'll post my final predictions in much more detail on the weekend.
The last couple of days have shown some interesting shifts in poll numbers, especially in Ontario, where most have the NDP shooting up to 24%. NDP numbers also show some signs of strengthening in BC and Alberta and recovering somewhat in Quebec, where they lost a few points to the BQ. The Tories also seem to be down a few points nationally in the last few days, but may recover with some focus on the platform they just released. It'll be interesting to see who gains the momentum in the final week.
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